Indian economy to grow fastest in next 50 years

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NEW DELHI Indian economy is set to expand at the world’s fastest rate over the next 50 years to emerge as a major force globally, but it would still rank as the second worst in terms of prosperity of its citizens.

Over the 50-year period between 2011-2060, India will register an annual economic growth rate of 4.9 per cent, as per a latest report by Paris-based international grouping of the world’s leading economies, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

India’s per-person GDP (measure of well-being of a country’s citizens) will also grow more than 7-fold during this period, but the country will still rank at second place from the bottom by 2060 in absolute terms, said the report.

India was ranked lowest in terms of per-person GDP in 2011 and its position would change only marginally to second lowest after Indonesia in 2060, while China’s position will improve considerably from third-worst to 16th from the bottom.

On the top, the US would be followed by Switzerland, Australia, Norway and Luxembourg. Switzerland is projected to be at the top in terms of well-being of its citizens.

As per the report titled ‘Looking to 2060: Long-Term Global Growth Prospects’, China would also grow significantly during this period with the third-highest growth rate after India and Indonesia.

“Income per capita in the poorest economies will more than quadruple by 2060, and China and India will experience more than a seven-fold increase, but living standards in these countries and some other emerging countries will still only be one-quarter to 60 per cent of the level in the leading countries in 2060,” OECD said.

“The extent of the catch-up (in terms of living standards) is more pronounced in China reflecting the momentum of particularly strong productivity growth and rising capital intensity over the last decade.

“This will bring China 25 per cent above the current income level of the US, while income per capita in India will reach only around half the current US level,” it added.

China would be on the top in terms of MFP (Multi-Factor Productivity that measures combined productivity of inputs into production) with a growth rate of 3.7 per cent, followed by Indonesia’s 3.2 per cent and India’s 3 per cent.

The overall economic growth rate in China (3.9 per cent) between 2011-2060 would be third-largest after India’s 4.9 per cent and Indonesia’s 4.1 per cent.